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Don't Panic!

Added Sep 30, 2017 •

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we live in a world atlas change migrations of people to New Mexico feeling soaring skyscrapers and fast slumps ravenous appetites for fuel and food unpredictable climate change events in the world by the population is still growing should we be worried how to make sense of a tool seven billion people live on this planet some people think about the world and its future they Panic I'll just prepare to think about I'm going to show you my name is I'm just at the station at no no no no because with the latest date that family comes I'm going to show you the world in the new way I'm going to tell you how and what today's date. Tell us about how the future of the world undeniable face you'd shot at the good news is that the future may not be quite as gloomy and that mankind already is doing better than Manual Music Davis each one of blessing but many people think population growth is out of control even talk of the population bomb call Dave Wright so where are we with population today and how did we get here I'm going to tell you a story about everyone who ever lived well at least you during the lost some Thousand-Year here we go I give you two axes this is time in hears and this one here is world population in Billings in the year 10000 BC when the first becoming Farmers then the archaeologists estimate that the world population was only 10 image of 10 million that's like Sweden today or world of only Suites I've been at the millenia post by more Farmer's Food and people and go Empire School image Egypt China India and finally Europe and population continue to grow pot very slowly and I stopped here at the year 1800 equals 8 1800 that's when world population became 1 billion imagine all that time the population growth was real stupid the tiny fraction of a percent through thousands of years but here with Industrial Revolution everything changed and population started to grow faster in little more than 100 years in which to build and then you know when I was at school it just three billy dependent cannot support more people need an expert said that that's what happens when you know we became for being there 5 minutes 6 pinion 7 imagine more than half of the world population added during my life and the the number is still Rising most of the population growth in recent years has been in Asia Congress like Harry Bangladesh but the population has tripled during my lifetime from the 52 more than 150 million it's not one of them most densely populated countries in the world some 15 million already lived in the very crowded capital.com people hair weather in the City of Arlington concerned about the size of planets but the new Bangladesh is emoji like the Khan family mom taslima daughters tangina and little Cydia I'm not Heidi Klum Alondra Shadows on the bottom line choices and I won't have them until 11 o'clock Leslie Mann and come from large families themselves but they decided to have just two children can I text an olive olive oil how do I get out of jail visitation hilarious Leslie Mann Hannah no part of the cultural shift away from big families and for taslima it's also become a job she works for the government Family Planning service which employs women like her in every village she goes door-to-door to try to help others to have smaller Families 2 Michigan basketball cosima offers advice moral support and most importantly a range of contraceptives Patagonia careers Kennedy Hospital Washington Township Rihanna and Shakira so how successful have pets Lima and Bangladesh been in reducing fertility rate that is number of babies born per woman make it Allstate available in a way that everyone can understand so I can show you the situation in back here baby Superwoman all the way from 1 to 2 to 7:20 and hear a vertical axis that is lifespan life expectancy how many years are newborn can expect to live from 30 all the way up tonight no we start in 1970 a very important year for Bangladesh the First full year of Independence Bangladesh was over there and they had on average seven babies Berumen and lifespan was less than 50 years so what else happened after Independence life become longer in Bangladesh and children become fewer here is the date I start Bangladesh and babies fewer 65 + 19 on the 4th Street and then and now almost into its 2.2 in the lifespan the 7th it's absolutely amazing in 40 years Bangladesh have gone from 7 six five four three two it's a miracle that has happened in back on it but is it only in Bangladesh well and show you the whole world - 1963 tour for the car and the green one is an earth North and saw the yellow ones is Europe Easton West and Lou Africa north and south of the Sahara and red is Asia and we include Australia New Zealand show the size of the population is China and India is yes behind in 1963 the average number of babies born to a woman in the world can you see that over here developed countries they had small families and long lights and then they were the developing countries over here and they had large families and showtimes and very few words but now and see what I start the world here we go and you can see that China is getting the big bubble is getting to Better Health and then they start Family Planning they move along to smaller families and the Big Green look at Mexico Mexico's coming there and then Brazil nuts of the green light the following the big red bubbles are Asian countries going this way many Africans are still with many babies born per woman and then Bangladesh over there overtakes India on its way to the Smurfs almost all go after this pop even Africa. Could be you know in the world the average is 2.5 imagine used to be 50 years ago 5 and the world has changed the average number of babies born for woman 5 - 2.5 Fendi crazy water big change people would think that Bangladesh in countries like that epicenter of a population bomb they couldn't be more wrong to me cuz like me just ask me, and they call it who have taken their Confidence from this site all over in a few decades too much better health and small family they are the heroes of our time it's an amazing change that has happened we no longer needing a divided world how much do people know about this amazing change only show date we also measure how much people know or don't know about the world so we did the first survey in sweet the response went to press so we did our second serving break we have High Hope because the British have been all over the place so we thought we would get good with how many babies do women have on average in Bangladesh 2.5 3.5 4.5 for 5.9 this is the result of the British Open but you know it's 2.5 only 12% of the British gotta try that perhaps it was dragged down the result two weeks ago those white bean to the Fine British universities and other University degree and here they are if anything works to know you may conclude that the British lack knowledge about the world what if I would have asked Lisa and his friend I would have written the different answers on bananas and let them pick one banana I ate you know this result I would get gyms know nothing about that random baby pics I know that British you know more than half of the business people think it 4.5 or more the problem here it's not like I conceived idea the business cannot even imagine cannot even guess that women in Bangladesh have 2.5 and you know it's really 2.2 this is what the Brits don't know Dreamliner family older Norman backpack the most common family and it's not only their it's all over the world in Brazil to charge families just not to charge family give me the name of the most common family size is 2 children today you go to the big cities here less than two children per woman today in all this happen that can be Muslim Buddhist Hindu Kristen does not one religion not want to culture not one continent where to charge this change from Big Family Stone to to Sean family is one of the most important things that have happened in the world during my lifetime it's unprecedented in human history back in Bangladesh that's fine the reason behind this historic and continuing shift from large to small families Alma School girls in Muslim Bangladesh like 15 years Gina go to school today the government now even pays families money to keep their daughters on at 2nd or 11th what time Gina school boys on outnumbered by girls hey. You could hardly miss the point of this lesson adult education is effective and there are also new opportunities for Bangladeshi women despite continuing Gina is Aiming High how many schools are in the football league weather Madison Johnny Cash more and more young women here are seeing how different things could be for them Bill Bellamy the deepest river in the world phenomenal fashion SS cracked attack it's wonderful to see that lemur so full of Hope for a brighter future for our children but one essential transformation underpins the change in Bangla it's a dramatic Improvement in chart survive it's Ramadan the Muslim month of fasting and reflection at least suspicious time Hernan is helping his parents 210 the family graveyard common siblings died when they were very Young they are buried here I'm getting back to the way they were young couple one in five children in Bangladesh died before they reached five years of age families lived with the cones fear of losing one or more chilled isn't about a Cadillac the Lost decades Bangladesh has made great progress in basically particular than can survive Maxine's treatment of infections and better nutrition and hygiene how to save the lives of millions of children and as parents have come to see that all of the children are not likely to survive the biggest obstacle to a family plan has that lost, even in the slums of Dhaka women have an average just to chill childserve everything let's go back into history and why did the world population grow so slowly before 1800 went throughout history on historical records show us that honor two patterns for LS6 chilled as a very fast so I didn't because one two three four of the children died before growing to be competitive people in the past never lived in a collage account balance with nature. It was up to me project when the Industrial Revolution this change better wages more food Hot Water Sanitation so medical advances you know from all these advances by the population growth because I got more children 1963 last year when I was at school actually the number of children per woman had decreased in the world and the reason for the past population growth the groom Child Survivor survive at that time but still one out of five dimes that was still tired so it's only in the recent package that most of the country taking big leap forward in child survival and in Family Planning so that we are now approaching the new balance and it's a nice balance to parents on average get to children that survive families in a very happy that this is the most normal family situation in the world today what does this mean for the future I will show you the projection the best projection into the future from the finest demographers we have at the population division of the United Nations and it looks like this is going to continue first up to 8 and then it goes up and then it goes it's slowing down the slope song by the end of the centuries becoming more flat there and if I do a close up on this you can see that we are expecting a slowing down and the end the past population growth Adam course this is a projection that has a certain degree of uncertainty that we are sure that we are at the end of fast population growth within the century ordered you to a remarkable effect of the phone in Virginia if we go back into the show this by showing you the number of children in the world the number of children from 0 to 15 years of age hey Becca at the number of children death Flonase increase rapidly so by the turn of the century here that would 2 billion children in and to me that was an important year because that was when do that were that's my first grandchild Ann and she was born at the very special time for children in the world because the specialist estimate that's from this year the number of children in the world will continue like this if you're not increasing your number by the end of the century women still have to been in children in the world when Doris was born is when the world and into the age of peaches the number of children are not increasing because how can the total population grow nightmare if the children where we go movies and to explain that I have to leave this fancy stuff and show you real powerful education materials not develop here I will show you the world population the latest in the form of foam blocks one block is one bill and that means that we have two billion children in the world we have two billion between 15 and 30 years of age these are wrong VIN number 1 billion 3245 where 1 billion 45 to 60 and then we have my blow 60 years in the we are here on Top This is the world population today and you can see that there are three buildings missing I care only few of them are missing because most of them are missing because they never bored because back then you know before 1988 children born in the world so this is what we have today. What will happen in the future you know what happens to old people like me yes it was someone here who works in hospitals so they die they grow 15 years older and have 2 billion shift these ones on old time to die and then these ones grow 15 years older and have two billion children this one died and the restroom 15 years older and had two billion children without increasing the number of children with increasing the length of life we have three billion people more by this big inevitable fell off of Adam which should happen just when the Lord's young Generations snow that is one more detail which is good news for the older ones here and I like me that it estimated that there were people will live a little longer so so we have to add 1 billion more for the old desperately hoping that I would be part of that because then I can live long and read the annual statistic as income reporting every year when I talk to many Pine Environmental activist which are in the Bible the concern about the environment when I've been told me that the first they don't know that the average speed time and then they are completely unaware that most Romania population growth is an inevitable Philip so we win end up with more or less this amount of people so we know how many billions there would be but what about where they live now and in the future now you have the world and here are the seven Billy now out of the seven billion one living the American north and south to get one in Europe one in Africa and 4 in Asia to remember this way of remembering I put up the numbers like this and this is the PIN code of the world for Europe no increasing facts of Europe population is decreased in America a little more people mainly retired people in Latin America would make no difference if we will have 1 billion and then in Africa in the next 40 years the population with double to tubing route to the end of the century where we know quite where is no more people in Europe no more in America no more in Asia Africa is set as we have beta today for another ee so that would be poor buildings in Africa that 2100 and probably the Pioneer pin code will be 104 to 2100 that would be quite a different world the people who live in what I called the old west in West Europe and North America will buy them be less than 10% of the world population 2% of the world population will be living in Asia and Africa but will that be resources enough to sustain them well this would be a huge Challenge and nothing will come at the Matic my take is that it is possible for all these billion to live well together shut the the potential for a prosperous and peaceful Asia with five billion people Japan South Korea and others are already rich following them on the road to wealth a larger and larger part of India Indonesia and many other Asian countries more and more are getting a decent life but what about the future Africa that's my chest for Ben what most of them be living in terrible poverty I have seen the extreme poverty in Africa 30 years ago I spent most intense years of my life working as medical doctor in one of the poorest countries Mozambique on the east coast of Africa become independent war against the colonial power Porsche and my job was to be one or two doctors we were both Foreigners for 300,000 people and this was the hospital my wife have the chance during the colonial period to get the professional training of at least one year the others many of them couldn't even read and write with such dedication and motivation of the patient came with the worst diseases of extreme poverty and all our resources were open. especially my skill as a young doctor did not meet the needs of the patient still today very important things have improved immensely since I was there fortistar that's now a brand new hospital in the town but I work 30 years ago then much bigger hospital had 15 doctors and 11 of them are mozambican the director of the hospital is dr. Kashima the Olmsted tubing Gator establish the transformation hair is amazing to me images of Easter day Santa video does the Wisconsin Laboratory they routinely save women in childbirth with the scissor Ariens something that goes possible when I was there. OK Google who sang Katella Garden the Moon everything has improved so much those born in Mozambique today should I burn much brighter future but yes because I'm better health partner booming economy to with busy ports and markets and you Industries with lots of new jobs I know you might be thinking that this good news is yesterday about cities and towns and it's true the worst challenges in the Ruler lyrics by most people things are changing here too deep in rural Northern Mozambique lies the District of MoGo bowlers this is home for Olivia Andre and their young family how to make it smell like so many other poor people in the world Olivia and Andrea are farmers reliant on what they grow for what they eat it's 4 a.m. and the days tallest Spectrum Andrea head straight to the fields or Olivia first goes to fetch water both have to walk miles to get anywhere well like I said what I'm really I'm talking. with no other means of Transport everything has to be carried Olivia and I have eight children for degeneration still high in match of rural Africa and it's the poorest families who have the most mouths to feed anything this family can spare they'll send me Camaro or so very nice to go ahead open Sudoku if you know me clothes is slowly trickling into the countryside Andre has set his sights on one thing he believes will change everything bicycles can make a huge difference to the lives of the run for hours every day and get so much more done with a bicycle they can carry much heavier loads to the market earn more money they can travel to find and if they get sick they can reach a health clinic in time Opera get to machine Casino it's okay oh hello Nikki Andrea no baby I've been putting money away for 2 years they haven't quite enough yet everything now depends on the sesame seeds which they are Yost harvesting can get the good price they might just make it simple I'm bringing Olivia live in one of the poorest countries and they live in the ruler in the area which is the poorest part of that come so how many how many people are there in the world living like they and how many are there that are for I'm going to show you this job stick very simple poor and Rich and here I have all the seven billions again simplified way lined up there from the poorest to the richest how much does the richest billionaire earn $10 per day let's look here coming up is coming up and moving George on your door. I can't even reach $200 a day then let's look at the middle billion exactly in the middle how much do they earn and then I go over here to the poor spending how much do they get well just one this is the difference of the world today economies they draw a line which they called the line for extreme poverty a little about $1 that's when you hardly can have enough food to feed the time you cannot be sure that you have for those days and 1 billion is clearly be loaded stem the second building is sort of divided by that line and and then be all those are about the poorest people they can hardly afford to buy shoe and when they get shoes the next thing I will say for is by this is my laundry and Olivia and you will go for the motor and then after the motorbike is the car and I remember when my family was the first car it was a small gray Volkswagen the first thing we did was to go to Norway and a holiday it was no red so much more beautiful than sweet I'm in this group I can go like the richest men in we can go on holiday by here of course that people are much richer than the airplane people summer so rich so they even contemplated that they should go as tourist out into space and the difference in income from the airplane people to the very richest over is almost as big as it is from the airplane people here you know all the way down to the poorest in that time the most important to remember from this John stick is this who is this I need my step ladder sometimes you need some old well functioning technology 20 reach here there are no I'm at the top the problem for us living on $100 a day is that when we Nuketown on those who have $10 or $1 they look equally poor we can see the difference it look as if everyone is living on the same amount of money and they said no because I messed and told me the people who live down here and I can assure you that the people down here they know very well how much better life would be if they would move from $1 to $10 difference and to understand this this is what Olivia and Andres trying to do now they take along this line from the shoes towards the bicycle small as his best scenes from for distant makerjuice difference in their life and Andre and Olivia would get that bicycle it would still leave them alone to better life and better well today I'm Dre and Olivia are preparing to sell the Sesame crap they've been growing for many months Pompano poker but Andrea and Olivia will have to be careful if they are to get paid the proper price Eric Nally with my brothers family endocrinology 30 hour tow is going to do this Saturday for the last time he hopes he has to get help to transport the crop to Market Russian TV needs to keep his wits about him impotent Andres happy with the price is God it's the moment the family have worked so hard for Lola Seattle the little  my way Andres journey to Market to the morning to walk now in less than an hour he can ride home what temperature the bicycle is put to use that once the Chinden fetch water with it Andrea carries more crops to the market and just as importantly will leave you alone. make a note to reach that lessons for adults so they can learn better meds and how to read and write it took into LaMotta topic set alarm for 6 it's so great to see Olivia and Andrea heading that way out extreme poverty and they use the bicycle to go to literacy class education is so important for the progress of people and Nations how many know what has really happened without you time for the Great British ignorance survey game today or I can read and write can I owe Steel Wardens how many get 20% * up 40% 60% and 80% this is the result of the British stamp I know by now you can use the result of the British survey to find out what the right right answer at least you were clearly better than the British average the stage of percent of the population in the world can read and write today Mistresses 80% Ohio so if I would have compared that with Ash instigate you know you only get random returns from the shape but you had three times as many correct answers from the end of the universe 50 people or even work red teaching at British University Coleman view about the world is outdated with several decades the media this to communicate but perhaps this is because the world is changing so fast ladies and gentlemen I'm going to give you my old time favorite graph I'm going to show you the history of 200 doing 200 years in less than one minute I have an access point, I have a Nexus 4 lifespan I start in 1800 and there are other countries I'm back in 1800 everyone was down in the poor and sick Corner can you see no lifespan little money and here comes the effect of the Industrial Revolution of course the countries in Western Europe that coming to better well but I'm not getting much help the beginning Nation doesn't benefit anything in the corner and now health is improving slowly improving the new century entertainment first World War economic recession after that and then the second world war and Independence and with Independence health is improving faster than and no starts the past economic Pet Shop China and other Latin American countries they come on the here you know and India is following their and the African countries is also Father it's an amazing change that are happening in the front here we have no West End UK the fast movers are here in the middle China's moving very fast to catch up and Bangladesh Bangladesh healthy enough starting with us zombie vs mutant biggest back there but they're not moving fast in the right direction but all this I show you his country average what about Peep and Peep and also go to bed tonight I'm not going to show you something which makes me very excited that says that decision I'm going to show you income distribution the difference between p and to do that I take the bubbles and back 50 years and then we are going to look only at money and to do that we have to expand and adjust the access to go to riches is so rich and the poor is this supposed to be bigger difference in between that and what we do know is that we left the country full down here this is August 8th and spread to show the range within the country and I take down all the countries in the America and now you can see from the richest person to the poorest person and the highest here shows you how many they are on each income enough let's take down Europe and on top of that I'm going to put Africa and finally the region with most people on top of everything Asia in 1963 the world was constituted by two humps first the richest time it's like a camel isn't it the first time. With the riches is mainly Europe and the Americas and the poorest hump over here is mainly Asia and Africa and the poverty line was there can you see how many people that were in extreme poverty and most of them were in the people were saying that we never gets out the public accept that some people know what has happened I start tomorrow and you can see that many people are born into poverty hits by Deja goes towards High and 1 billion goes out of extreme poverty this way and the whole shape of the world change and the family said it's reborn as a drama. And what you can see it you know is the variation from the richest that is most people in the mid and there's a much smaller proportion of the world now in extreme poverty but be careful it's still a lot of people more than one 10 people in extreme poverty now the question is can this move out of extreme poverty now continue for those in Africa and even for the new beginnings in Africa I think it's possible even probable that most countries in Africa will rise out of poverty to it would need wise action and Yugi investment how many countries are bad but don't know what to order advancing at the same pace you are moving very fast others are stuck in Conflict but most like Mozambique or no making steady progress and what about feeding all the new African people in the future yes there are shortages today but there's only so much potential heirs agricultural jeans in Africa fraction of what they could be for the better technology and Africa's rivers are barely tapped for irrigation one day Africa could hum combine Harvesters and tractors and grow food for many more videos and please don't imagine it just me who thinks Africa can make it United Nations is about to set itself official goal eliminating extreme poverty within 20 years everyone understand it's a huge challenge but I seriously believe it's possible imagine if that would happen what bed seems so far is that the rich and it moves and the middle it moves at this poorest and Easter it's here in extreme poverty with and almost all the illiteracy and we find high child mortality in steel many babies born per room it's like extreme poverty reproduces itself if you don't and it's whiskey green Olivia and people like that they work so hard to get away from and if they only can get the right help from their government and from The World At Large with things like school health vaccines roads electricity contraceptives then they will manage but they will mainly managed by their own hard work here we go home Polo and Ryan Olivia across the line you know it is possible within some decades but getting out of poverty in the beginning people want to continue along this line to a good life but what does a good life mean for most people in the world the good life that are striving for will mean more machines and much more use of energy so that's a problem because all this adds to one of the greatest threats for the future severe climate change 80% of the energy the world and the science shows that the may change dramatically in the future course of the carbon dioxide from continuing to burn all these fossil fuels I'm not the best person to tell you how climate change repeat nor am I a specialist on how to prevent what I can do to make you understand who is the one that inmates the carbon dioxide I would show this you remember the yardstick from the poorest been into the richest in from the one I hardly can afford shoes to the 105 with airplane shows the total amount of fossil fuel used in the world during Bonnie coal oil and natural gas and it represent more or less carbon dioxide the richest billionaire no the second richest pinion half of what's left and you understand what that said use half of what left and the others use hardly anything this is rounded number added clearly shows you know that almost all the fossil fuel is used here by the one two three richest billions more than 85% billion here at least have stopped increase I'll be out yet to see whether they will decrease and in the coming decade is the economic growth of these two that will increase the fossil fuel used in the carbon dioxide emission even if these ones over here come out to extreme poverty and get rich show all the way to the motorbike that doesn't contribute much to the emission of carbon dioxide and regarding population growth most of the addition Binion's the next 40 years will be in this group here if you are asked people in the richest and they seem to get everything wrong they look down on the road from there and then they say you cannot live like a new will destroy you music I find the argument from the people here catching up to be much more correct than logic they say who are you to tell us that we can live like you you better change for if you want us to do it different there are many ascensions to having a good life billions in the world and house and so many lies don't even have electricity Mozambique has a huge gold reserves and if it and the other poorest countries build affordable new power stations burning code for electricity in industry anyone with more carbon should interfere know what I'm going to do is ask you two questions that I often ask my Swedish student the first one is how many of you have travel by airplane this year why can't you can do without fly so the next question is how many of you have stayed away from washing machines and you have hand warmers waterbed sheets clothes and laundry during the last year I thought so no one told you was washing machine even that hard to coordinate environmental movement Alaskan remember the day when my family go through washing machine it was the first of November 1952 grandma was invited to be the first to load the machine that hand wash her entire life for a family of and when she loaded the machine she sat down on the footstool and she watched the entire program during one hour she was absolutely mesmerized my mother it also meant a lot more free time to do other things she could read books for me I think that's what made me no wonder we said Thank You steel mill thank you washing powder Factory thank you electrical respect no been thinking about where will this leave I have your one little humble advice to decide everything else look at the day look at the facts about the world and you will see where we are today and how we can move forward with all these billions on our wonderful plan the challenge of extreme poverty I've been greatly reduced and it's for the first time in history within our power to end it for good the challenge of population growth is in fact already being so the number of children have stopped growing and for the challenge of climate change we can still avoid the worst but that requires that the richest as soon as possible on the way to set their use of resources and energy after level that step-by-step can be shared by 10 billion or 11 billion by the end of the century I've never called but I do say I'm a possibility and I also say the world is much better than many of you think thank you very much

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